Ten years following the UK entered into a hasty public vote that polarised the nation and triggered turmoil, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and voters drifted into Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two leading journalists from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially fraught and seismic public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our islands remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have studied the governmental, financial and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the matter with a tour of lectures that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns all parties, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extraordinarily split population where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the victorious side don't know precisely what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say that moment is imminent, and a group called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity if and when there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unity has masked the shortage of serious debate, noted McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to realise it has largely not occurred. Much has taken place in academia but scarcely any politicians or activists seek to involve themselves with even the essentials. As an example, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, no writer endorses unification or the status quo. Each composes two articles that aim for objectivity in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling economic and social figures, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Discussions encompass flags and symbols, duties, medical care, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The aim is to educate and encourage dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there hasn't quite been a debate," stated the writer. "Debate implies an recognition of the concept that there might be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they favour unification but reject greater financial contributions or implementing a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government should establish what the offer from nationalist groups is beyond just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride believes a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it may take place abruptly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a bad or a negligent official who states: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate arguments, he stated. "One side will prevail here and the other side will eventually be defeated but both parties has got valuable insights to gain from the other's viewpoints."
Request for Wider Dialogue
Westminster should join the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This concerns your state. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish matter."
